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Topic: All those weather projects... (Read 14972 times) Print
PiNkY

the dang enigma
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*squeek*

someone asked me the other day....why are there at least 3 different ones when they sound like they're doing the same thing?  is there a difference, or is it just different names?  if they're doing the same thing, are they at least working together beyond the fact that they're all boinc(or at least the ones i've heard of), or are they defeating the purpose of predicting climates by doing the same thing 3x over and adding to global warming?


i haven't looked into them in depth...only thought there were two up until the other day when the seasonal attribution one was brought up...so i suppose there may be more then i realize there are...
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TLD

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CPDN - creating software to predict our climate.

Experiment 1

This experiment is more about learning how the model reacts to changes in initial conditions and parameters than about actually trying to replicate the Earth's climate. For this reason, the model we use has a sophisticated atmosphere, but a simplified ocean (a single layer, 'slab' ocean). This means that some aspects of the climate system (such as oceanic currents, and the El Nino oscillation) are not replicated, but the model runs a lot faster and a lot more calculations can be completed.

The knowledge we gain from this experiment about the way the model reacts to changes to the parameters will be used to design the next phases of the climateprediction.net experiment - combinations of parameters that obviously do not work can be avoided.

The experiment consists of 3 separate phases, each model which is distributed completes all 3 phases from a unique set of initial conditions:

Calibration step(phase 1)
    Phase 1 is the calibration phase of the experiment. In this phase, the temperature of the surface of the ocean is artificially held constant. The movement, or flux, of heat, in or out of the ocean that is required to keep the ocean at a constant temperature is calculated. This is an easy solution to having a very simple ocean in the model, which cannot actually store heat in the way that a real, deep, complex ocean can. The dates given to this phase are 1810-1825.
Pre-industrial CO2 step (phase 2)
    This is the control phase. This involves running the model for 15 years with the levels of CO2 in the model atmosphere kept constant at pre-industrial levels, 282ppm. Unlike phase 1, here the temperature of the ocean surface is allowed to vary, according to how much energy the ocean receives and emits. However, it is safe to assume that the amount of heat flowing into the oceans is the same as in phase 1, so the heat fluxes calculated in phase 1 are applied. Unless the atmosphere starts doing something very different, and the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere is changed, the temperature of the whole atmosphere should therefore stay the same. If this is the case, the globally averaged surface temperature should also be approximately constant and not change substantially from year to year or drift off to a very different temperature, and we say that the model is stable. The dates given to this phase are 1825-1840.
Double CO2 step (phase 3)
    In this phase the levels of greenhouse gases (you can read more about the Greenhouse Effect here) are doubled and the model is run for a further 15 years. In a good model, the atmosphere should adjust to this change in forcing and eventually settle in a new stable, equilibrium state (which may be the same, warmer or cooler). The dates given to this phase are 2050-2065.

The results will give an indication of what combinations of parameters work (in terms of producing an atmosphere that behaves in a similar manner to reality and does not freeze or boil, or oscillate in and out of ice ages on a timescale of a couple of years). We will therefore be able to use the results to guide our choice of parameters in the main experiment.

By comparing the single and doubled CO2 steps, we can calculate the climate sensitivity of the models - this is the difference between the globally averaged surface temperature in the model with pre-industrial CO2 and in that with doubled CO2. This is a useful indicator of how a climate model behaves, although it is slightly artificial, as of course carbon dioxide values in the atmosphere do not remain constant for 15 years, but change continuously.

[Note: This is the experiment launched in September 2003.]

As extensions to this experiment, we ran a 4 phase thermohaline circulation experiment for a couple of months from June 2004. You can see the first results of this here.

In September 2005, we launched a 5 phase sulphur cycle experiment which will also run for a couple of months.

Experiment 2 (Simulation of 1920-2000)

The second experiment will use the full atmosphere-ocean model the complete coupled model. This means the ocean is able to respond much more to changes in the atmosphere than in experiment 1, giving us a more complete simulation of the climate. The experiment will use:

    *

      The combinations of parameters that were identified in experiment 1 as working i.e. that produce a stable, viable climate.
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      The range of initial conditions will be the same as that used in experiment 1.
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      The experiment will be forced by observations of CO2, volcanic emissions etc. from 1920-2000 and a range of possible scenarios for what might happen in the next 100 years. Read more about the forcing scenarios here.

By using each model to produce a 'hindcast' for 1920-2000, and then comparing the spread of forecasts with observations of what actually happened, we will get an idea of how good our range of models is - do most of them do a good job of replicating what actually happened? This will also let us 'rank' models according to how well they do. All the models will also be used to produce a forecast for the future - until 2080. When this experiment finishes, we will have a range of forecasts for 21st century climate.
Last Edit: July 23, 2006, 07:58:25 AM by TLD
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TLD

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Seasonal attribution is using CPDN software to prove bad weather in England was caused by globle warming.

Recent extreme weather events have prompted the debate about effects of human activity on the world's climate. Now you can help us to determine the extent to which extreme weather events like the United Kingdom floods of Autumn 2000 are attributable to human-induced climate change. We invite you to download and run high-resolution model simulations of the world's climate on your own computer. By comparing the results of these simulations, half of which will include the effects of human-induced climate change, and half of which will not, we will investigate the possible impact of human activity on extreme weather risk. Thank you for your help, and please join the project!
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john galbraith

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Hasn't England always had bad weather? Smiley

Seriously though, I think it's rather irresponsible for climatologists to make broad statements in support of global warming based on only 100 years of hard data.  If they would study geology too, they would find ample evidence of similar weather patterns in the world's long history.  These things are cyclical, driven by nature and there's not much that man can do about it.
The distributed computing weather projects are interesting and may be of some limited use in predicting future weather patterns but they are still just high tech speculation.  Weather services around the world use billions of dollars worth of satellites, radars and computers and they still cannot accurately predict the weather more than a few days out
I don't know if these scientists are seriously deluded, trying to justify their government grants, or wanting to best their colleagues in public recognition, but I'm getting weary or their 'the sky is falling' pronouncements.
Last Edit: July 23, 2006, 08:26:43 AM by john galbraith
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TLD

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True John the climate has changed before and is always changing but they are saying that it has never changed this fast and that man has caused this fast change from the chemicals we have put in the air. By causing this fast change the natural balancers can not adapt quick enough. For instance the last time there was very high CO2 there was large rain forests to adsorb said CO2. something like that anywho.


PS i know the oceans absorbes more CO2 than the rain forest but we are killing off the plankton too.
Last Edit: July 23, 2006, 08:40:21 AM by TLD
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Stephenish

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Honi soit qui mal y pense

Last I heard, we can reverse the rising CO2 in our atmosphere by creating chemical CO2 'eaters.'

Many scientists agree the earth is doomed unless we respond.
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fingerle

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  Earth is just as able to change even if we do something.
One mild volcanic eruption can dump more greenhouse and other gasses in to the atmosphere than mankind ever has.

True that we sure aren't doing anything to help matters any.  However, the earth has many climatic cycles some of which are due to occure again. Earth doomed? I doubt it. Change to the point where humans find it hard to survive on it?? Possible. Has happened before.
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Stephenish

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Honi soit qui mal y pense

One really powerful volcano - i.e. Krakatoa or thereabouts, could in fact send up enough particulate matter to cool the earth significantly.
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I can think that than which a greater cannot be thought. Now, if that than which a greater cannot be thought existed only in the intellect, it would not be that than which a greater cannot be thought, since it can be thought to exist in reality which is greater. It follows, then, that that than which a greater cannot be thought exists in reality.
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Stephenish

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Honi soit qui mal y pense

What we want to avoid is enough heat to kill off all plant life. There's loads of methane in icy form at the bottom of some of our oceans. We want to prevent the methane from being released. Means we have to at least attempt to regulate global climate as the current predictions are gloomy.
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I can think that than which a greater cannot be thought. Now, if that than which a greater cannot be thought existed only in the intellect, it would not be that than which a greater cannot be thought, since it can be thought to exist in reality which is greater. It follows, then, that that than which a greater cannot be thought exists in reality.
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pwrguru

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The movie "Day after Tomorrow" is a great example of what would happen if we added too much fresh water to our oceans....The earth and our weather is a great big balancing act dependant on each other....
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TLD

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The movie "Day after Tomorrow" is a great example of what would happen if we added too much fresh water to our oceans....The earth and our weather is a great big balancing act dependant on each other....

And we dont want any fingers on the scale. Grin
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Stephenish

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Honi soit qui mal y pense

Hey, DA when the freezing storms come, can we stay with you?
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I can think that than which a greater cannot be thought. Now, if that than which a greater cannot be thought existed only in the intellect, it would not be that than which a greater cannot be thought, since it can be thought to exist in reality which is greater. It follows, then, that that than which a greater cannot be thought exists in reality.
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Ghost Plane

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The movie "Day after Tomorrow" is a great example of what would happen if we added too much fresh water to our oceans....The earth and our weather is a great big balancing act dependant on each other....

I personally look forward to my waterfront property - since I currently live 18 miles inland Devil  Hoghappy
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pwrguru

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Maybe Island property.... rofl rofl rofl
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Ghost Plane

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Just me and the mastodon bones Thumbs Up  Hoghappy
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Stephenish

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Honi soit qui mal y pense

Poor Louisiana may end up partially in the drink, we thought Katrina was bad? Bye bye to Venice and much of the Netherlands also. Oh yeah, New York city?
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I can think that than which a greater cannot be thought. Now, if that than which a greater cannot be thought existed only in the intellect, it would not be that than which a greater cannot be thought, since it can be thought to exist in reality which is greater. It follows, then, that that than which a greater cannot be thought exists in reality.
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john galbraith

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I know a lot of people, including me, who wouldn't miss Manhattan at all. Devil

Venice and the Netherlands would be a much greater loss to the cultured world.
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Ghost Plane

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Won't miss New Orleans at all Devil
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john galbraith

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Yeah.  Let the place succumb to nature so we can stop throwing money into that hole in the ground.
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Ghost Plane

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It would certainly cut the national crime rate Devil
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Stephenish

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Honi soit qui mal y pense

Problem is, we have to absorb those folks in Houston. High school gang fights and all.
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I can think that than which a greater cannot be thought. Now, if that than which a greater cannot be thought existed only in the intellect, it would not be that than which a greater cannot be thought, since it can be thought to exist in reality which is greater. It follows, then, that that than which a greater cannot be thought exists in reality.
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Dark Angel

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Only slightly cranky

Based on current estimates, land around the township of Glenbrook in the Blue Mountains would end up being waterfront property.  It's about 60m above sea level atm.
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"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." -Terry Pratchett
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TLD

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Last program i watched about it said if the Greenland ice sheet melts would raise ocean leval 25 M if anartica melts would add another 125 M i guess our kids will see.

PS : plus stopping ocean curents that keep the northern hemiphere warm.
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Ghost Plane

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Living down here in the tropics is looking better and better Grin
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Dark Angel

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Only slightly cranky

Oh well, so much for checking out the ruins on the sea floor off of Greece and Bermuda.  Doh  We'll need another ice-age before they get dry again.
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"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." -Terry Pratchett
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